Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.0%). Look for Finley on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Finley wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Barron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 49.0% vs Barron 48.2% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finley 57.1%
Defensive zone
Barron 60.9%
Neutral zone
Barron 51.5%
Result
Jack Finley favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Finley
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Finley
Barron
Last 8: Finley 4-4 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
2
Finley
Barron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Finley
4
2
Finley
Barron
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (244)
49.5% (731)
-2.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
50.0% (6)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
42.6% (209)
+15.1%
On penalty kill, Finley has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Finley is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Finley shoots right. Barron is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Home / Away
Finley
Barron
Home
50.0% (162)
45.5% (457)
Away
46.7% (122)
50.3% (489)
By Period
Finley
Barron
P1
53.2%
47.6%
P2
44.6%
51.3%
P3
49.5%
45.0%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
54.0%▲
50.5%
48.6%
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 11:53 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 02:31 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:52 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 08:49 | Offensive | Morgan Barron |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 06:11 | Offensive | Morgan Barron |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 12:25 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 02:32 | Neutral | Jack Finley |