Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Stenlund 54.0% (-18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 94.9%
Defensive zone
Hughes 88.0%
Neutral zone
Hughes 85.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Hughes
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hughes
Stenlund
Last 7: Hughes 1-6 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
4
Hughes
Stenlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
2
Hughes
Stenlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
55.3% (2,703)
-19.3%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
52.6% (116)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
50.6% (919)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Hughes shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Home / Away
Hughes
Stenlund
Home
36.8% (1,670)
54.3% (1,848)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
53.9% (1,890)
By Period
Hughes
Stenlund
P1
36.9%
56.4%
P2
33.6%
53.3%
P3
38.1%
52.8%
OT
37.5%
52.9%
Final 5 min
34.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:15 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |