Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +16.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Thompson 52.9% (-16.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 94.5%
Defensive zone
Hughes 70.3%
Neutral zone
Hughes 87.9%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 82.2%
82.2%
17.8%
Hughes
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hughes
Thompson
Last 7: Hughes 1-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Hughes
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Hughes
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
54.1% (5,812)
-18.1%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
54.8% (135)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
47.9% (1,381)
-16.9%
On even strength, Thompson has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Home / Away
Hughes
Thompson
Home
36.8% (1,670)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Hughes
Thompson
P1
36.9%
53.2%
P2
33.6%
52.9%
P3
38.1%
52.8%
OT
37.5%
47.9%
Final 5 min
34.2%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 28, 2019 | 1 | 14:41 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 28, 2019 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 28, 2019 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 04:57 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 02:06 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |