Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Patrick 51.0% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Patrick leads 16-8 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 85.2%
Defensive zone
Hughes 89.5%
Neutral zone
Hughes 89.6%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Hughes
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
16
(24 meetings)
8
16
Hughes
Patrick
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
3
5
Hughes
Patrick
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
2
6
Hughes
Patrick
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
3
5
Hughes
Patrick
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
50.6% (1,978)
-14.6%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
57.5% (120)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
57.7% (26)
-26.7%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Hughes shoots left. Patrick is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,441).
Home / Away
Hughes
Patrick
Home
36.8% (1,670)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Hughes
Patrick
P1
36.9%
52.9%
P2
33.6%
49.1%
P3
38.1%
51.3%
OT
37.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
34.2%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 11:31 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 13:15 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 06:28 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 17:33 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 25, 2021 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 25, 2021 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 09:02 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |