Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Hughes wins 39.5% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.4% vs Patrick 52.1% (-17.2%)
H2H factor
Patrick leads 16-8 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 77.4%
Defensive zone
Hughes 84.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 89.9%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Hughes
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
16
(24 meetings)
8
16
Hughes
Patrick
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
3
5
Hughes
Patrick
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
2
6
Hughes
Patrick
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
3
5
Hughes
Patrick
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
35.7% (569)
51.2% (371)
-15.5%
Power Play
33.3% (36)
62.2% (37)
-28.9%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
59.1% (22)
-42.4%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +42.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Hughes is 39.5% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Hughes shoots left. Patrick is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Hughes
Patrick
Home
37.8% (333)
48.5% (231)
Away
32.4% (278)
57.3% (199)
By Period
Hughes
Patrick
P1
38.8%
52.0%
P2
28.3%
52.3%
P3
38.6%
53.2%
OT
42.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
31.7%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.4%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 11:31 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 13:15 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 06:28 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 17:33 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 25, 2021 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 25, 2021 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 09:02 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |