Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.1% vs 44.0%). Look for McBain on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Dewar wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.1% vs McBain 44.7% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 51.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 51.7%
Neutral zone
Dewar 52.4%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Dewar
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Dewar
McBain
Last 9: Dewar 5-4 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
0
Dewar
McBain
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
1
0
Dewar
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
4
Dewar
McBain
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (443)
45.3% (675)
+0.1%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
50.0% (16)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
28.8% (52)
37.6% (149)
-8.8%
On power play, Dewar has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Dewar is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Dewar shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Dewar
McBain
Home
43.3% (238)
45.5% (437)
Away
44.9% (265)
42.4% (403)
By Period
Dewar
McBain
P1
41.7%
43.5%
P2
46.1%
44.0%
P3
44.4%
45.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
44.1%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 2 | 18:48 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 09:26 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:09 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |