Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 55.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 62.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.9%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
McBain
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McBain
Bjugstad
Last 7: McBain 3-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
McBain
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
McBain
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
48.9% (280)
+3.2%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
50.0% (6)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
47.2% (36)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McBain is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McBain shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
McBain
Bjugstad
Home
52.2% (289)
48.4% (190)
Away
50.0% (316)
49.2% (132)
By Period
McBain
Bjugstad
P1
52.6%
41.7%
P2
53.6%
56.6%
P3
47.1%
48.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Jack McBain |