Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roslovic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Roslovic 44.2% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 62.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 96.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 86.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Stepan
Roslovic
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stepan
Roslovic
Last 7: Stepan 6-1 Roslovic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Roslovic
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Roslovic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Roslovic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Roslovic
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
42.9% (739)
+11.6%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
54.8% (84)
-54.8%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
28.1% (32)
+36.6%
On power play, Roslovic has a +54.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roslovic shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Roslovic is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Stepan
Roslovic
Home
54.5% (222)
41.6% (442)
Away
57.2% (222)
45.5% (413)
By Period
Stepan
Roslovic
P1
57.5%
44.9%
P2
54.7%
43.8%
P3
55.9%
41.8%
Final 5 min
57.5%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Roslovic
50.0%▼
53.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 14:09 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 05:52 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 11:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 15:57 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |