Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schwartz wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwartz 52.8% vs Gaustad 57.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 79.3%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 78.4%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 50.1%
Result
Jaden Schwartz favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Schwartz
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Schwartz
Gaustad
Last 7: Schwartz 3-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwartz
3
1
Schwartz
Gaustad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
3
Schwartz
Gaustad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwartz
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (55)
59.3% (913)
-4.8%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
72.2% (18)
-22.2%
Penalty Kill
72.7% (11)
52.8% (269)
+19.9%
On power play, Gaustad has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Schwartz is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (54).
Schwartz shoots left. Gaustad is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Schwartz
Gaustad
Home
56.4% (39)
58.6% (604)
Away
56.4% (39)
57.4% (596)
By Period
Schwartz
Gaustad
P1
60.0%
61.5%
P2
53.8%
55.7%
P3
52.2%
56.6%
OT
75.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
56.4%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2014 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |