Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwartz 50.0% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 93.6%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 75.6%
Neutral zone
Schwartz 61.4%
Result
Jaden Schwartz favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Schwartz
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Schwartz
Gaustad
Last 9: Schwartz 3-6 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwartz
3
1
Schwartz
Gaustad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
5
Schwartz
Gaustad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwartz
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (651)
58.2% (4,334)
-11.0%
Power Play
56.2% (345)
65.4% (188)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (46)
54.8% (1,290)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Schwartz is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Schwartz shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Schwartz
Gaustad
Home
51.3% (526)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
48.6% (516)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Schwartz
Gaustad
P1
49.1%
58.2%
P2
49.7%
56.4%
P3
51.0%
58.3%
OT
53.3%
66.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2015 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 29, 2015 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |