Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Dowell wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Smithson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowell 48.8% vs Smithson 56.5% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Smithson leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Dowell 88.6%
Defensive zone
Dowell 80.4%
Neutral zone
Dowell 85.9%
Result
Jake Dowell favored at 85.3%
85.3%
14.7%
Dowell
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Dowell
Smithson
Last 10: Dowell 5-5 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Dowell
Smithson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
5
Dowell
Smithson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
5
Dowell
Smithson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowell
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (759)
58.4% (1,842)
-9.3%
Power Play
38.5% (13)
55.6% (45)
-17.1%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (81)
50.6% (443)
-3.7%
On power play, Smithson has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. Dowell is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (229).
Dowell shoots left. Smithson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,681).
Home / Away
Dowell
Smithson
Home
51.8% (413)
58.4% (1,195)
Away
45.8% (443)
55.0% (1,150)
By Period
Dowell
Smithson
P1
50.4%
55.9%
P2
46.6%
55.3%
P3
49.7%
59.0%
OT
0.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
47.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowell
38.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 3 | 02:19 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 1 | 02:06 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 3 | 17:34 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 08:23 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 03:11 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 12:12 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |