Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowell on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dowell wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowell 48.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 95.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 82.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 88.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 85.4%
14.6%
85.4%
Dowell
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Dowell
Pavelski
Last 6: Dowell 5-1 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
1
0
Dowell
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
3
1
Dowell
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowell
1
0
Dowell
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowell
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (759)
53.6% (8,791)
-4.5%
Power Play
38.5% (13)
58.2% (2,122)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (81)
50.9% (1,138)
-4.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Dowell is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (229).
Dowell shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Dowell
Pavelski
Home
51.8% (413)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
45.8% (443)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Dowell
Pavelski
P1
50.4%
53.5%
P2
46.6%
55.2%
P3
49.7%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
47.6%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowell
38.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Mar 14, 2011 | 1 | 09:51 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 3 | 08:14 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 2 | 15:06 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 2 | 07:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |