Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowell on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowell 49.1% vs O'Reilly 51.6% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 84.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 77.1%
22.9%
77.1%
Dowell
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Dowell
O'Reilly
Last 9: Dowell 7-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
3
0
Dowell
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
2
0
Dowell
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dowell
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowell
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (573)
53.4% (770)
-3.5%
Power Play
33.3% (12)
55.6% (54)
-22.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (64)
44.4% (196)
-0.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dowell is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Dowell shoots left. O'Reilly is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Dowell
O'Reilly
Home
52.5% (303)
53.5% (533)
Away
45.8% (349)
50.0% (492)
By Period
Dowell
O'Reilly
P1
49.5%
50.8%
P2
47.0%
52.4%
P3
50.7%
51.6%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowell
38.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2011 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Jan 12, 2011 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 1 | 18:10 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 7, 2010 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |