Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowell on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowell 48.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Dowell leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 73.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 74.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 76.7%
23.3%
76.7%
Dowell
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Dowell
O'Reilly
Last 10: Dowell 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
3
1
Dowell
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
2
1
Dowell
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Dowell
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowell
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (759)
56.2% (15,260)
-7.1%
Power Play
38.5% (13)
58.8% (3,445)
-20.3%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (81)
51.4% (2,811)
-4.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dowell is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Dowell shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Dowell
O'Reilly
Home
51.8% (413)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
45.8% (443)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Dowell
O'Reilly
P1
50.4%
55.6%
P2
46.6%
57.0%
P3
49.7%
55.1%
OT
0.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowell
38.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 05:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 3 | 11:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2011 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Jan 12, 2011 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 1 | 18:10 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 7, 2010 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |