Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Greene 44.7% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 55.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 76.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 60.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Evans
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Evans
Greene
Last 5: Evans 4-1 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Greene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Greene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greene
1
2
Evans
Greene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
43.7% (524)
+10.1%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
47.5% (59)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
43.6% (149)
+3.5%
On power play, Evans has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Evans shoots right. Greene is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Evans
Greene
Home
53.4% (2,593)
47.4% (382)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
40.3% (350)
By Period
Evans
Greene
P1
54.0%
46.4%
P2
50.9%
38.9%
P3
52.0%
47.0%
OT
46.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:53 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 01:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:27 | Neutral | Jake Evans |