Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 55.9%). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Crosby 55.5% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 86.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 86.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 51.9%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Evans
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Evans
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
53.7% (984)
+2.5%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
64.7% (241)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
64.3% (14)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Crosby is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (360).
Home / Away
Evans
Crosby
Home
55.3% (374)
56.9% (649)
Away
57.1% (317)
54.9% (590)
By Period
Evans
Crosby
P1
58.5%
55.8%
P2
55.7%
53.2%
P3
53.9%
58.7%
OT
66.7%
54.2%
Final 5 min
54.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |