Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Kozak 49.7% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kozak 58.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 57.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 53.4%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Evans
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
1
Evans
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Kozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
49.3% (294)
+6.3%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
60.0% (5)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
50.0% (40)
+5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Kozak is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Home / Away
Evans
Kozak
Home
54.7% (402)
45.5% (145)
Away
56.9% (341)
52.6% (194)
By Period
Evans
Kozak
P1
57.9%
53.4%
P2
55.2%
50.0%
P3
53.6%
44.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |