Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Kozak 48.8% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kozak 60.5%
Defensive zone
Kozak 50.2%
Neutral zone
Kozak 53.0%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Evans
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
1
Evans
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Kozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
48.3% (431)
+5.4%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
62.5% (8)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
48.9% (45)
-1.8%
On even strength, Evans has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Evans shoots right. Kozak is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Evans
Kozak
Home
53.3% (2,621)
47.6% (229)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Evans
Kozak
P1
54.0%
54.4%
P2
50.9%
45.7%
P3
52.0%
45.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |