Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.6% vs 46.9%). Look for Guentzel on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Guentzel wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 47.4% vs Scheifele 47.2% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 51.6%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 54.8%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 50.3%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Guentzel
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Guentzel
Scheifele
Last 6: Guentzel 4-2 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
1
Guentzel
Scheifele
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
4
1
Guentzel
Scheifele
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (200)
46.5% (878)
+2.5%
Power Play
42.3% (111)
48.3% (174)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
50.0% (54)
-4.2%
On power play, Scheifele has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Guentzel is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Guentzel shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Scheifele
Home
48.8% (166)
46.2% (571)
Away
44.4% (169)
47.7% (535)
By Period
Guentzel
Scheifele
P1
46.7%
51.9%
P2
48.5%
45.6%
P3
44.3%
43.9%
OT
42.9%
27.3%
Final 5 min
48.4%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 04:22 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |