Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.3% vs Cates 43.2% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 91.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 75.1%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 61.2%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Guentzel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Guentzel
Cates
Last 8: Guentzel 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
6
0
Guentzel
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Guentzel
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (685)
44.1% (2,742)
+2.2%
Power Play
45.7% (291)
43.0% (242)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (42)
34.9% (373)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Guentzel shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Cates
Home
48.3% (544)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
43.2% (474)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Guentzel
Cates
P1
47.8%
44.5%
P2
45.2%
43.5%
P3
45.3%
41.2%
OT
33.3%
29.4%
Final 5 min
42.5%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |