Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Guentzel wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 50.0% vs Nash 48.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 73.2%
Defensive zone
Nash 74.1%
Neutral zone
Nash 51.0%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Guentzel
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Guentzel
Nash
Last 5: Guentzel 3-2 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
1
Guentzel
Nash
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
3
1
Guentzel
Nash
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (95)
47.7% (801)
+0.7%
Power Play
53.3% (30)
51.2% (41)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
52.3% (107)
+7.7%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Guentzel is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (59).
Guentzel shoots left. Nash is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Nash
Home
50.6% (79)
50.1% (467)
Away
49.0% (51)
46.7% (482)
By Period
Guentzel
Nash
P1
56.1%
52.1%
P2
44.4%
44.9%
P3
51.4%
47.3%
Final 5 min
36.4%
43.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
50.0%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 1 | 13:27 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 1 | 03:53 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |