Scouting Report
Riley Nash holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Guentzel wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.3% vs Nash 48.5% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Guentzel leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 75.4%
Defensive zone
Nash 91.2%
Neutral zone
Nash 61.3%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Guentzel
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Guentzel
Nash
Last 10: Guentzel 6-4 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
2
0
Guentzel
Nash
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
2
Guentzel
Nash
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
4
2
Guentzel
Nash
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (685)
48.7% (4,621)
-2.4%
Power Play
45.7% (291)
51.0% (249)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (42)
44.9% (550)
-2.0%
On power play, Nash has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Guentzel is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Guentzel shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Nash
Home
48.3% (544)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
43.2% (474)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Guentzel
Nash
P1
47.8%
49.0%
P2
45.2%
47.9%
P3
45.3%
48.0%
OT
33.3%
68.4%
Final 5 min
42.5%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 1 | 13:27 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 1 | 03:53 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 26, 2017 | 1 | 06:40 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 26, 2017 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |