Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCann wins 42.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCann 43.0% vs Stenlund 54.0% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCann 87.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 54.0%
Neutral zone
McCann 70.7%
Result
Jared McCann favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
McCann
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McCann
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
McCann
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
2
McCann
Stenlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McCann
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCann
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (3,178)
55.3% (2,703)
-12.2%
Power Play
40.0% (260)
52.6% (116)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (173)
50.6% (919)
-8.4%
On power play, Stenlund has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. McCann is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,310).
McCann shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Home / Away
McCann
Stenlund
Home
43.1% (1,758)
54.3% (1,848)
Away
42.5% (1,855)
53.9% (1,890)
By Period
McCann
Stenlund
P1
44.4%
56.4%
P2
41.7%
53.3%
P3
42.7%
52.8%
OT
36.4%
52.9%
Final 5 min
41.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCann
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.8%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:13 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:04 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:32 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |