Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.1% vs 54.2%). Look for Stoll on defensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stoll 55.0% vs Pavelski 54.1% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Stoll leads 47-38 in 85 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 68.2%
Defensive zone
Stoll 68.0%
Neutral zone
Stoll 51.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Stoll
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
38
(85 meetings)
47
38
Stoll
Pavelski
Last 10: Stoll 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
16
17
Stoll
Pavelski
33 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stoll
17
6
Stoll
Pavelski
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
14
15
Stoll
Pavelski
29 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stoll
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (4,886)
53.6% (8,791)
+2.4%
Power Play
56.5% (496)
58.2% (2,122)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (1,087)
50.9% (1,138)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Stoll is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,963).
Stoll shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Stoll
Pavelski
Home
57.2% (3,285)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
53.0% (3,218)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Stoll
Pavelski
P1
54.2%
53.5%
P2
55.8%
55.2%
P3
55.3%
53.9%
OT
52.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stoll
72.0%▲
62.5%
55.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 12:08 | Neutral | Jarret Stoll |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2015 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Jan 21, 2015 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2015 | 1 | 09:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 1 | 15:13 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 1 | 19:32 | Offensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 17:50 | Neutral | Jarret Stoll |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 09:14 | Offensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |