Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stoll wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stoll 54.6% vs Toews 58.6% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stoll 52.8%
Defensive zone
Stoll 74.8%
Neutral zone
Stoll 66.0%
Result
Jarret Stoll favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Stoll
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Stoll
Toews
Last 8: Stoll 2-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
Stoll
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stoll
Toews
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Stoll
Toews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stoll
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (853)
58.5% (775)
-2.3%
Power Play
53.3% (135)
64.9% (225)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (200)
55.8% (120)
-4.3%
On power play, Toews has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Stoll is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (869).
Stoll shoots right. Toews is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (316).
Home / Away
Stoll
Toews
Home
60.0% (620)
63.0% (567)
Away
49.7% (584)
55.8% (570)
By Period
Stoll
Toews
P1
55.4%
59.6%
P2
54.6%
58.2%
P3
54.6%
60.7%
OT
66.7%
52.4%
Final 5 min
56.4%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stoll
72.0%▲
62.5%
55.0%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2011 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 1 | 18:48 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 1 | 13:09 | Neutral | Jarret Stoll |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 1 | 07:42 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 19:25 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 05:12 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |