Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stoll 50.9% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stoll 56.9%
Defensive zone
Stoll 53.9%
Neutral zone
Stoll 55.9%
Result
Jarret Stoll favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Stoll
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Stoll
O'Reilly
Last 5: Stoll 0-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Stoll
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Stoll
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stoll
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (953)
52.7% (900)
-0.9%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
55.6% (225)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (143)
54.5% (209)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stoll is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Stoll shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Stoll
O'Reilly
Home
51.0% (606)
55.1% (693)
Away
51.0% (555)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Stoll
O'Reilly
P1
51.3%
51.5%
P2
52.6%
54.7%
P3
48.8%
52.7%
OT
53.8%
69.7%
Final 5 min
50.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stoll
72.0%▲
62.5%
51.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2015 | 1 | 19:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2015 | 1 | 14:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2015 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |