Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.1% vs 56.0%). Look for Stoll on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings). Stoll wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stoll 55.0% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Stoll leads 27-18 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 65.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Stoll
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
18
(45 meetings)
27
18
Stoll
O'Reilly
Last 10: Stoll 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stoll
6
4
Stoll
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stoll
12
9
Stoll
O'Reilly
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stoll
9
5
Stoll
O'Reilly
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stoll
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (4,886)
56.2% (15,260)
-0.2%
Power Play
56.5% (496)
58.8% (3,445)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (1,087)
51.4% (2,811)
-0.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stoll is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,540).
Stoll shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Stoll
O'Reilly
Home
57.2% (3,285)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
53.0% (3,218)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Stoll
O'Reilly
P1
54.2%
55.6%
P2
55.8%
57.0%
P3
55.3%
55.1%
OT
52.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
57.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stoll
72.0%▲
62.5%
55.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2016 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 2 | 09:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 16:29 | Neutral | Jarret Stoll |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Jarret Stoll |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2015 | 1 | 19:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2015 | 1 | 14:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2015 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 1 | 17:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Feb 22, 2012 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2012 | 2 | 15:38 | Offensive | Jarret Stoll |