Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.3% vs Bailey 45.5% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Arnott leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Arnott 83.7%
Defensive zone
Arnott 63.1%
Neutral zone
Arnott 77.9%
Result
Jason Arnott favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Arnott
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Arnott
Bailey
Last 10: Arnott 7-3 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
4
1
Arnott
Bailey
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
2
Arnott
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
4
0
Arnott
Bailey
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,444)
45.8% (1,991)
+3.9%
Power Play
53.8% (182)
48.1% (295)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
39.9% (281)
+0.1%
On power play, Arnott has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Arnott is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,175).
Arnott shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Home / Away
Arnott
Bailey
Home
52.1% (891)
46.6% (1,353)
Away
48.2% (772)
44.0% (1,232)
By Period
Arnott
Bailey
P1
46.1%
46.5%
P2
53.6%
44.8%
P3
50.1%
44.4%
OT
71.4%
51.1%
Final 5 min
49.3%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2012 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 1, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 1 | 04:01 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 2 | 07:38 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 2 | 04:15 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |