Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +16.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dwyer on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Arnott wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dwyer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.2% vs Dwyer 38.5% (+16.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 61.1%
Defensive zone
Arnott 52.1%
Neutral zone
Arnott 52.1%
Result
Jason Arnott favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Arnott
Dwyer
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Arnott
Dwyer
Last 6: Arnott 3-3 Dwyer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Arnott
Dwyer
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
0
Arnott
Dwyer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dwyer
1
2
Arnott
Dwyer
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Dwyer
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (777)
34.8% (221)
+14.2%
Power Play
58.1% (93)
25.0% (8)
+33.1%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
12.5% (8)
+17.5%
On power play, Arnott has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dwyer shoots right. Arnott is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Arnott shoots right. Dwyer is 35.3% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Home / Away
Arnott
Dwyer
Home
51.1% (460)
30.8% (91)
Away
49.3% (434)
35.4% (147)
By Period
Arnott
Dwyer
P1
45.3%
36.4%
P2
54.2%
30.4%
P3
49.8%
34.8%
Final 5 min
48.4%
35.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Dwyer
30.0%▼
38.0%
33.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Patrick Dwyer |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Patrick Dwyer |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 10:36 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 8, 2011 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 8, 2011 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Patrick Dwyer |