Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dwyer on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.3% vs Dwyer 38.5% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 64.6%
Defensive zone
Dwyer 60.0%
Neutral zone
Arnott 53.7%
Result
Jason Arnott favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Arnott
Dwyer
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Arnott
Dwyer
Last 6: Arnott 3-3 Dwyer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Arnott
Dwyer
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
0
Arnott
Dwyer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dwyer
1
2
Arnott
Dwyer
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Dwyer
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,444)
36.1% (313)
+13.6%
Power Play
53.8% (182)
33.3% (15)
+20.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
28.6% (28)
+11.4%
On power play, Arnott has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dwyer shoots right. Arnott is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (488).
Arnott shoots right. Dwyer is 34.6% vs right-shot opponents (130).
Home / Away
Arnott
Dwyer
Home
52.1% (891)
36.8% (163)
Away
48.2% (772)
34.0% (194)
By Period
Arnott
Dwyer
P1
46.1%
36.7%
P2
53.6%
30.8%
P3
50.1%
39.8%
OT
71.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Dwyer
30.0%▼
38.0%
35.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Patrick Dwyer |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Patrick Dwyer |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 10:36 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 8, 2011 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 8, 2011 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Patrick Dwyer |