Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.3% vs Gagner 46.0% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 61.7%
Defensive zone
Gagner 56.9%
Neutral zone
Gagner 59.0%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Arnott
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Arnott
Gagner
Last 10: Arnott 5-5 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
0
Arnott
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
3
2
Arnott
Gagner
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
4
Arnott
Gagner
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,444)
45.4% (4,699)
+4.3%
Power Play
53.8% (182)
51.5% (928)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
35.0% (226)
+5.0%
On penalty kill, Arnott has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Arnott is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (488).
Arnott shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Home / Away
Arnott
Gagner
Home
52.1% (891)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
48.2% (772)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Arnott
Gagner
P1
46.1%
44.6%
P2
53.6%
46.1%
P3
50.1%
47.3%
OT
71.4%
42.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2012 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 18:16 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 10:53 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 1 | 19:26 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 1 | 10:06 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |