Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 47.3% vs Spezza 54.4% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 59.3%
Defensive zone
Shaw 77.1%
Neutral zone
Shaw 57.3%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Shaw
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Shaw
Spezza
Last 6: Shaw 2-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
1
0
Shaw
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
4
Shaw
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (291)
53.2% (763)
-7.2%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
60.9% (197)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (4)
57.1% (21)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Shaw has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Shaw is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Shaw shoots right. Spezza is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Shaw
Spezza
Home
49.4% (160)
57.5% (518)
Away
43.5% (154)
51.8% (463)
By Period
Shaw
Spezza
P1
46.2%
55.4%
P2
45.9%
54.1%
P3
47.3%
55.5%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
59.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
46.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 14:34 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 11, 2016 | 3 | 15:29 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2016 | 3 | 13:49 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2016 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |