Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Spezza 53.7% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 59.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 79.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Nelson
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Spezza
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Nelson
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Spezza
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Nelson
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
53.0% (998)
-9.1%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
58.5% (248)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
50.0% (16)
-8.6%
On even strength, Spezza has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Spezza is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (919).
Home / Away
Nelson
Spezza
Home
42.9% (406)
56.4% (626)
Away
45.8% (393)
51.7% (636)
By Period
Nelson
Spezza
P1
44.1%
56.9%
P2
47.2%
51.9%
P3
42.2%
53.9%
OT
30.8%
46.2%
Final 5 min
39.9%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2015 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 1 | 08:04 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 02:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |