Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Miller wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 52.6% vs Spezza 55.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 59.2%
Defensive zone
Miller 54.3%
Neutral zone
Miller 56.1%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Miller
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Miller
Spezza
Last 10: Miller 3-7 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
4
Miller
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Miller
Spezza
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (432)
57.9% (292)
-3.0%
Power Play
23.1% (13)
62.3% (53)
-39.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (81)
52.9% (138)
-4.8%
On power play, Spezza has a +39.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Miller is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (164).
Miller shoots left. Spezza is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Home / Away
Miller
Spezza
Home
55.4% (294)
58.4% (238)
Away
50.0% (232)
55.5% (245)
By Period
Miller
Spezza
P1
47.5%
59.2%
P2
51.7%
54.8%
P3
60.5%
57.4%
Final 5 min
48.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.0%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 1 | 14:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 18, 2021 | 2 | 13:27 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 3 | 18:34 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 1 | 15:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 15:34 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |