Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 54.2%). Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Pavelski 54.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 23-18 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 62.7%
Defensive zone
Spezza 54.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 54.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Spezza
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
23
(41 meetings)
18
23
Spezza
Pavelski
Last 10: Spezza 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
12
6
Spezza
Pavelski
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
11
Spezza
Pavelski
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
6
Spezza
Pavelski
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
53.6% (8,791)
+0.8%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
58.2% (2,122)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
50.9% (1,138)
+1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Spezza
Pavelski
Home
56.8% (5,066)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Spezza
Pavelski
P1
55.7%
53.5%
P2
54.4%
55.2%
P3
54.1%
53.9%
OT
51.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 2 | 02:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 3, 2018 | 2 | 17:34 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 3, 2018 | 2 | 02:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2018 | 1 | 05:14 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 1 | 01:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2017 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2017 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 12:25 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 6, 2015 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 6, 2015 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |