Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 54.3%). Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 18 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Thornton 54.3% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 33-22 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 59.8%
Defensive zone
Spezza 52.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 50.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Spezza
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
22
(55 meetings)
33
22
Spezza
Thornton
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
14
4
Spezza
Thornton
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
10
9
Spezza
Thornton
19 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Spezza
Thornton
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
53.5% (6,640)
+0.9%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
57.2% (1,387)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
56.7% (427)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thornton
Home
56.8% (5,066)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Spezza
Thornton
P1
55.7%
55.0%
P2
54.4%
53.3%
P3
54.1%
54.4%
OT
51.5%
56.4%
Final 5 min
54.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1 | 10:03 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 07:56 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 18:01 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 12, 2017 | 1 | 14:21 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 18:15 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 08:05 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 6, 2015 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 6, 2015 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 10:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |