Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Larsson 49.5% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Larsson leads 16-9 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 52.9%
Defensive zone
Larsson 88.9%
Neutral zone
Larsson 68.2%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 70.6%
29.4%
70.6%
Spezza
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
16
(25 meetings)
9
16
Spezza
Larsson
Last 10: Spezza 3-7 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Spezza
Larsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
6
Spezza
Larsson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
6
8
Spezza
Larsson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
50.5% (4,382)
+3.9%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
47.7% (153)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
43.8% (714)
+8.9%
On power play, Spezza has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Home / Away
Spezza
Larsson
Home
56.8% (5,066)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Spezza
Larsson
P1
55.7%
51.6%
P2
54.4%
49.7%
P3
54.1%
47.2%
OT
51.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:19 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 19:33 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 02:12 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 1 | 13:20 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 30, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 30, 2019 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 30, 2019 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 09:04 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 1 | 04:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 3 | 13:17 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |