Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Larsson 50.6% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 80.5%
Defensive zone
Larsson 85.3%
Neutral zone
Larsson 67.1%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Spezza
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Spezza
Larsson
Last 5: Spezza 1-4 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Larsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
4
Spezza
Larsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
53.8% (773)
+4.2%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
0.0% (2)
+60.0%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
39.9% (218)
+20.1%
On power play, Spezza has a +60.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Spezza shoots right. Larsson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (356).
Home / Away
Spezza
Larsson
Home
58.2% (376)
51.2% (490)
Away
58.2% (431)
50.1% (503)
By Period
Spezza
Larsson
P1
63.3%
50.6%
P2
54.9%
53.1%
P3
57.4%
48.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2019 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 1 | 13:20 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 30, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 30, 2019 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 30, 2019 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |