Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Norris 51.0% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 57.0%
Defensive zone
Norris 56.4%
Neutral zone
Norris 52.4%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Spezza
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Spezza
Norris
Last 6: Spezza 3-3 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Norris
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
0
3
Spezza
Norris
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Norris
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
51.2% (886)
+2.5%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
59.0% (83)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
38.8% (67)
-0.6%
On power play, Norris has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Norris is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Home / Away
Spezza
Norris
Home
55.0% (282)
55.6% (487)
Away
50.8% (295)
47.0% (549)
By Period
Spezza
Norris
P1
53.1%
54.8%
P2
53.2%
51.3%
P3
52.3%
48.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 08:42 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 05:06 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 19:59 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Josh Norris |