Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Porter shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Porter 41.2% (+15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 94.5%
Defensive zone
Spezza 74.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 92.1%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Spezza
Porter
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Spezza
Porter
Last 6: Spezza 5-1 Porter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Porter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Porter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Porter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Porter
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
39.2% (469)
+15.2%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
55.6% (18)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
36.2% (47)
+16.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Porter shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Porter is 39.5% vs right-shot opponents (210).
Home / Away
Spezza
Porter
Home
56.8% (5,066)
41.6% (274)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
37.3% (260)
By Period
Spezza
Porter
P1
55.7%
37.1%
P2
54.4%
44.9%
P3
54.1%
36.7%
OT
51.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Porter
50.0%▲
42.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2013 | 3 | 14:21 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 4, 2013 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 4, 2013 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 4, 2013 | 3 | 05:37 | Offensive | Kevin Porter |
| Oct 4, 2013 | 2 | 19:23 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 17, 2010 | 1 | 08:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |