Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.5% vs 54.0%). Look for Wellwood on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Wellwood shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs Wellwood 52.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wellwood 53.7%
Defensive zone
Spezza 60.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 52.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Spezza
Wellwood
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Wellwood
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Wellwood
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wellwood
0
3
Spezza
Wellwood
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Wellwood
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Wellwood
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
52.2% (184)
+1.6%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
58.7% (63)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
50.0% (2)
-0.6%
On power play, Wellwood has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wellwood shoots right. Spezza is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Spezza shoots right. Wellwood is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (60).
Home / Away
Spezza
Wellwood
Home
56.4% (853)
57.4% (141)
Away
50.5% (847)
49.5% (109)
By Period
Spezza
Wellwood
P1
53.4%
44.3%
P2
54.2%
63.6%
P3
53.4%
53.2%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.7%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Wellwood
54.0%▼
58.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2012 | 3 | 16:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 3 | 17:05 | Defensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 17:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |