Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Wellwood on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Wellwood shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Wellwood 52.3% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wellwood 56.5%
Defensive zone
Spezza 56.5%
Neutral zone
Wellwood 55.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Spezza
Wellwood
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Wellwood
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Wellwood
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wellwood
0
3
Spezza
Wellwood
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Wellwood
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Wellwood
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
50.7% (369)
+3.7%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
61.4% (88)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
50.0% (2)
+2.7%
On power play, Wellwood has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wellwood shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Wellwood is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Spezza
Wellwood
Home
56.8% (5,066)
54.7% (243)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
50.7% (217)
By Period
Spezza
Wellwood
P1
55.7%
46.2%
P2
54.4%
59.6%
P3
54.1%
51.7%
OT
51.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Wellwood
54.0%▼
58.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2012 | 3 | 16:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 3 | 17:05 | Defensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 17:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |