Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Foligno 47.3% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 93.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 87.3%
Neutral zone
Spezza 88.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
Spezza
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Spezza
Foligno
Last 10: Spezza 8-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Spezza
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
7
1
Spezza
Foligno
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
47.6% (553)
+6.8%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
56.3% (64)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
34.2% (76)
+18.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Foligno is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Spezza
Foligno
Home
56.8% (5,066)
46.0% (365)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
47.9% (328)
By Period
Spezza
Foligno
P1
55.7%
48.7%
P2
54.4%
49.8%
P3
54.1%
42.7%
OT
51.5%
36.4%
Final 5 min
54.2%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 03:35 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Marcus Foligno |