Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Foligno 48.9% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 83.7%
Defensive zone
Spezza 65.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 71.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Spezza
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Spezza
Foligno
Last 8: Spezza 6-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Spezza
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
6
1
Spezza
Foligno
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (1,097)
46.9% (258)
+7.0%
Power Play
54.8% (250)
59.4% (32)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (89)
54.5% (11)
-1.7%
On even strength, Spezza has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,020).
Spezza shoots right. Foligno is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Spezza
Foligno
Home
55.8% (695)
43.4% (143)
Away
52.2% (741)
53.2% (158)
By Period
Spezza
Foligno
P1
50.3%
46.7%
P2
54.7%
53.1%
P3
56.0%
45.2%
OT
73.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 03:35 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Marcus Foligno |