Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kempe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.1% vs Kempe 45.3% (+17.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 76.4%
Defensive zone
Spezza 63.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 70.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Spezza
Kempe
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Spezza
Kempe
Last 5: Spezza 3-2 Kempe
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Kempe
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Kempe
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Kempe
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (654)
39.7% (68)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
0.0% (2)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kempe shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Spezza shoots right. Kempe is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (17).
Home / Away
Spezza
Kempe
Home
61.4% (352)
52.9% (17)
Away
50.9% (395)
34.0% (53)
By Period
Spezza
Kempe
P1
60.6%
30.8%
P2
54.8%
47.8%
P3
52.5%
38.1%
Final 5 min
57.5%
20.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.8%
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2017 | 3 | 06:41 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 3 | 04:09 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 2 | 07:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 15:55 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |