Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kempe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Kempe 40.7% (+16.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 89.6%
Defensive zone
Spezza 72.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 82.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Spezza
Kempe
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Spezza
Kempe
Last 8: Spezza 5-3 Kempe
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
1
Spezza
Kempe
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Spezza
Kempe
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Kempe
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
38.7% (380)
+15.7%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
33.3% (3)
+23.5%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
31.3% (16)
+21.4%
On power play, Spezza has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kempe shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Kempe is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (127).
Home / Away
Spezza
Kempe
Home
56.8% (5,066)
40.1% (177)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
36.9% (222)
By Period
Spezza
Kempe
P1
55.7%
34.7%
P2
54.4%
40.4%
P3
54.1%
38.8%
OT
51.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2019 | 3 | 06:49 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Feb 4, 2019 | 1 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 3 | 06:41 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 3 | 04:09 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 2 | 07:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 15:55 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |