Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Jankowski 50.4% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 88.8%
Defensive zone
Spezza 62.9%
Neutral zone
Spezza 76.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Spezza
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Spezza
Jankowski
Last 10: Spezza 8-2 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
3
Spezza
Jankowski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
2
Spezza
Jankowski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
5
0
Spezza
Jankowski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
51.5% (3,462)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
53.7% (95)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
42.8% (528)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Jankowski is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,550).
Home / Away
Spezza
Jankowski
Home
56.8% (5,066)
51.9% (1,940)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
49.1% (2,145)
By Period
Spezza
Jankowski
P1
55.7%
50.0%
P2
54.4%
51.2%
P3
54.1%
50.2%
OT
51.5%
20.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 02:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 01:45 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 27, 2019 | 3 | 02:46 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 27, 2019 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 27, 2019 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 16:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 27, 2018 | 3 | 08:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 27, 2018 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 01:36 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 01:32 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 2 | 13:42 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 1 | 06:49 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |