Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Jankowski on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Jankowski 51.7% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 84.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 50.7%
Neutral zone
Spezza 68.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Spezza
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Spezza
Jankowski
Last 6: Spezza 4-2 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Jankowski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
2
Spezza
Jankowski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Jankowski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
52.6% (701)
+5.4%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
66.7% (12)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
45.8% (107)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Spezza shoots right. Jankowski is 48.6% vs right-shot opponents (282).
Home / Away
Spezza
Jankowski
Home
58.2% (376)
56.6% (424)
Away
58.2% (431)
47.0% (396)
By Period
Spezza
Jankowski
P1
63.3%
49.3%
P2
54.9%
57.4%
P3
57.4%
49.3%
Final 5 min
57.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2019 | 3 | 02:46 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 27, 2019 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 27, 2019 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 16:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |