Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Duchene 57.0% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 63.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 51.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Spezza
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Spezza
Duchene
Last 8: Spezza 5-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
56.5% (527)
-3.3%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
61.6% (185)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
59.3% (27)
-2.2%
On even strength, Duchene has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Spezza shoots right. Duchene is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Home / Away
Spezza
Duchene
Home
57.5% (518)
57.6% (403)
Away
51.8% (463)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Spezza
Duchene
P1
55.4%
61.4%
P2
54.1%
58.5%
P3
55.5%
54.9%
OT
25.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
59.1%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 05:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 11:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 09:06 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 04:17 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |