Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Duchene 52.8% (-1.2%)
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.6%
Defensive zone
Spezza 71.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 56.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Spezza
Duchene
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
46.9% (162)
+6.8%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
73.2% (56)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
100.0% (2)
-61.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +61.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Spezza
Duchene
Home
55.0% (282)
58.4% (125)
Away
50.8% (295)
48.4% (95)
By Period
Spezza
Duchene
P1
53.1%
56.9%
P2
53.2%
52.5%
P3
52.3%
51.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%